Back-to-School Season in Retail: How to Forecast Demand, Build Assortment, and Manage Inventory
Preparation for the school year creates increased demand for stationery, backpacks, clothing, footwear, electronics, and related goods. For a store, the main task is to build the right assortment in advance, replenish top-selling items throughout the season, and avoid accumulating excess stock after the main purchases are completed.
The Ukrainian back-to-school season has become less concentrated. Some families start buying necessities in late spring or early summer, many buyers postpone the main purchase until the last weeks of August, and some goods are bought after receiving lists from teachers. The learning format, security situation, family budget, and region affect the purchase composition. Therefore, the previous season's calendar should be used as baseline data, while procurement decisions should be based on the specific store's sales.
Do not set a single peak demand date for the entire country. Monitor sales weekly by product groups, stores, and price segments. This allows for faster reordering of popular items and stopping the procurement of products with weak dynamics.
Problem 1. Procurement is Based on a General Forecast
General market reviews show the direction of demand shifts but do not determine the needs of an individual store. A store near an elementary school will sell 12-sheet notebooks, art supplies, and ready-made kits better. Near a lyceum or university, larger format notebooks, planners, headphones, flash drives, and chargers may hold a larger share.
For the forecast, prepare sales data for comparable weeks over at least two completed seasons. Analyze the number of units sold, revenue, profit, average price, out-of-stock days, and return rate. If a product was out of stock, low sales do not mean low demand.
| Demand Wave | What Happens | Store Actions |
|---|---|---|
| Early | Buyers distribute expenses and choose backpacks, clothing, footwear, furniture, and electronics. | Test new products in small batches, open pre-orders, and prepare photos and product cards. |
| Main | Sales of basic stationery, kits, backpacks, and related goods increase. | Maintain availability of regular demand items, control queues, and quickly replenish displays. |
| Follow-up Purchases | After school starts, parents clarify lists and buy what is missing. | Keep the basic assortment in an accessible place, reduce procurement of seasonal designs, and promote goods for extracurricular clubs and creative activities. |
Procurement plan = sales forecast for the supply period + safety stock − current available balance − confirmed receipts. Separately account for reserved goods, defective units, and stock located in another store.
Reports like "ABC and XYZ Analysis", "Sales Analysis by Season", "Inventory Turnover", and "Stagnant Goods Analysis" help compare sales and demand stability. In the "Forming an Order to the Supplier" form, you can filter out products running low, view sales and balances, and generate the order quantity.
Problem 2. Assortment is Formed as a Single List for All Buyers
The needs of a first-grader, middle schooler, high schooler, and university student differ. The learning format has a separate impact. In-person learning requires backpacks, pencil cases, book covers, sports bags, lunch boxes, and water bottles. Remote or blended formats more frequently require headsets, webcams, computer mice, printing paper, chargers, and backup power supplies.
Form an assortment matrix based on four criteria:
- grade or age: elementary, middle, high school, university students;
- use case: daily learning, creative activities, sports, remote classes, staying in a shelter;
- price segment: affordable, mid-range, premium quality;
- demand type: basic regular, seasonal, trendy, impulse.
Basic items require sufficient stock depth: notebooks, pens, graphite pencils, erasers, glue, paper, and covers are bought repeatedly. For short-lifecycle designs, a broader display with fewer units of each variant is appropriate. Test trendy prints with a trial batch and replenish only after confirmed sales.
What to Add to the Basic School Assortment
- shoe bags, lunch boxes, water bottles, wipes, and organizers;
- reflective elements, compact flashlights, and raincoats;
- goods for extracurricular clubs, drawing, modeling, and home projects;
- printing paper, headsets, computer mice, flash drives, and chargers;
- spare pens, refills, notebooks, and covers for regular follow-up purchases.
School supplies must contain information in Ukrainian about the product, manufacturer, materials, and terms of use. Ask the supplier for quality and compliance documents, and inspect plastic and painted goods for sharp odors, glue residues, and mechanical defects. For backpacks, adjustable wide straps, a medium-stiff back, an appropriate size for the child, and reflective elements are important.
Structure the directory by product type, manufacturer, season, age, and characteristics used by the store. A unified structure provides correct filters and reports. For different retail outlets, the "Minimum and Maximum Stock Limits by Warehouses" option allows setting individual inventory standards for each product and store.
Problem 3. The Store Orders All Seasonal Goods in a Single Batch
A large initial purchase increases the risk of dead stock for unpopular colors, sizes, and designs. Too small a batch creates a deficit of basic goods and lost sales. A practical approach is to divide procurement into three parts:
- Basic Delivery. Ensures display stock and tests real demand by models, colors, and prices.
- Main Replenishment. Formed based on actual early-wave sales and product availability from the supplier.
- Short Reorders. Maintain the availability of fast-moving items during peak activity.
Before finalizing agreements with a supplier, negotiate the minimum batch size, delivery time, possibility of mixed orders, exchange of defective goods, and return or replacement of seasonal leftovers. Products with long delivery times require a larger safety stock. For goods delivered several times a week, stock can be reduced.
The "Automatic Calculation of Warehouse Stocks" option determines the estimated minimum quantity based on sales and delivery frequency. The calculation can be adjusted taking into account display needs, rounding, and promotional sales. The result should be verified before saving, especially for new products and short seasons.
Problem 4. The Buyer Has to Assemble the Purchase Item by Item
Parents often have lists of dozens of items and limited time. Prepare several kits with transparent contents: a basic first-grader kit, a middle school stationery kit, an art kit, and a remote learning kit. The contents should be verified against lists from nearby schools, as teacher requirements may vary.
On the price tag or insert, indicate all components, the quantity of each item, the total price, and the savings if any. Leave the option to replace the design of a notebook, pencil case, or folder within a defined price range. Place regularly repurchased goods next to the kits.
In the "Assembly" mode, a kit is created as a separate product with a specific composition and price. After assembly, the components are written off, and the finished kit appears in stock. If necessary, an allowed kit can be disassembled, and the components returned to stock.
Problem 5. Promotions Increase Sales but Decrease Profit
A flat discount on the entire back-to-school assortment often applies to goods that could have been sold at full price. Before a promotion, determine its objective: early purchase, increasing the number of items per receipt, selling specific dead stock, repeat visits, or attracting a new customer.
| Objective | Mechanics | What to Control |
|---|---|---|
| Start sales earlier | Limited offer on a backpack or kit until a specific date. | Margin, pre-promotion sales, and the share of new buyers. |
| Increase basket size | Discount based on quantity or total amount of a specific product group. | Average items per receipt and profit per receipt. |
| Get repeat sales | Bonus on the next purchase with clear terms of use. | Share of used bonuses and repeat revenue. |
| Reduce excess stock | A bundle of fast-moving and slow-moving goods, or a targeted discount. | Stock balance, profit, and sales velocity of a specific item. |
Do not include all products in one promotion without calculation. Set the minimum allowable margin, check the cost price, and limit the list of items and the period. After completion, compare sales with a control period and factor in purchases that would have occurred without the discount.
In Torgsoft, you can set up discounts by product groups, quantity, and purchase amount, keep bonus records, and analyze receipts. The "Mass Client Mailing" option allows segmenting the audience based on client database data and notifying them about new arrivals, kits, or promotions via SMS, Viber, or e-mail. Use contacts in accordance with obtained consent and provide an option to opt out of promotional messages.
Problem 6. Online and Physical Stores Show Different Availability
Buyers check prices and assortments online, but they often want to inspect backpacks, clothing, footwear, and some stationery in-store. Up-to-date stock, clear specifications, high-quality photos, and the possibility of reservation and in-store pickup are important to them.
A school product card should contain:
- exact name, brand, SKU, and barcode;
- dimensions, material, weight or volume, package contents, and age designation;
- for a backpack: dimensions, back type, strap width and adjustment, presence of reflective elements;
- several photos, including inner compartments and product scale;
- real availability by location, conditions for reservation, delivery, exchange, and return.
"Synchronization with the Online Store" unifies working with products, orders, sales, and shipments in a single system. For marketplaces, separate integrations with Rozetka.ua and Prom.ua are available. Before launching, check which fields and operations a specific integration supports.
Examples from Ukrainian Retail
Akvarel reported early sales growth of backpacks long before the main August demand. For a small store, this means it is advisable to launch a test display and initial promotional communication earlier, determining the volume of the next delivery based on actual sales.
Maudau highlighted a separate "Safety Backpack" category featuring water bottles, snacks, containers, flashlights, and other items for staying in a shelter. A small store can apply this concept as a dedicated shelf or recommended list coordinated with local school requirements.
Terytoriya Minimalnykh Tsin (Territory of Minimum Prices) built its seasonal offer around the convenience of buying basic goods in one place. For a local store, this approach is implemented through ready-made kits, grade-specific lists, reservations, and quick order picking.
Store Safety During the Back-to-School Season
The increased flow of visitors requires a pre-defined procedure during air raid alerts. Employees must know the nearest available shelter, the route to it, the procedure for informing customers, and those responsible for checking the premises. The instructions should be coordinated with the requirements of local authorities, shopping center administration, and occupational safety rules.
Place information about the shelter near the entrance and the cash register. Do not block aisles with seasonal racks and boxes. Cashiers must know how to safely abort a transaction, what to do with an unfinished receipt, and how to act after the all-clear signal. Conduct a brief briefing before the start of the main sales wave.
Where to Start Preparations
- Analyze previous seasons. Highlight product groups, weekly sales, out-of-stock days, post-season leftovers, margin, and returns.
- Create an assortment matrix and delivery calendar. Distribute products by age, use case, price, and demand type. Agree on short reorders with suppliers.
- Prepare sales across all channels. Create kits, update product cards, check stock, train sales staff, and define weekly control metrics.
Complete Store Preparation Checklist
- Export sales for comparable weeks of previous seasons.
- Separately mark products that were out of stock during the demand period.
- Check stock balances, reserves, defects, and confirmed deliveries.
- Distribute the assortment by grade, use case, and price segment.
- Identify basic, trendy, impulse, and seasonal items.
- Agree with suppliers on deadlines, minimum batches, and replacement terms.
- Plan the basic delivery, main replenishment, and short reorders.
- Check Ukrainian labeling and quality documents.
- Create two or three kits with a complete list of components.
- Update photos, specifications, prices, and stock in online channels.
- Place regular follow-up purchase goods in a permanent zone.
- Calculate the margin of each promotion and determine the control period.
- Prepare messages for the client base and check consent for mailings.
- Train sales staff to select products by age and use case.
- Verify the route to the shelter and brief the staff.
- Weekly monitor sales, available stock, and replenishment speed.
- Define a plan for selling surplus stock after the main season in advance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Analytics, negotiations with suppliers, and product card preparation should begin a few months before peak demand. Launch the first display when stable sales growth appears in your data, or earlier to test new models.
Use sales for a comparable period, adjust them for out-of-stock days, delivery time, and expected changes. Add safety stock and subtract available balance and confirmed receipts. For new products, use a small trial batch.
Collect lists from nearby schools, analyze search queries and assortments of Ukrainian marketplaces, ask suppliers about sales by categories, and open pre-orders. Buy new products in small batches and review the results weekly.
Yes, if the kit's contents match real lists and the buyer sees all items and the price. Prepare several options by grade or budget and allow substituting individual designs within set limits.
Stop replenishing goods with short seasonal designs, redistribute excess stock among stores, create kits, and transfer part of the assortment to office, art, and leisure categories. Apply discounts after calculating the minimum margin.
The success of the back-to-school season depends on data accuracy, control frequency, and replenishment speed. A store should separately plan for basic goods, new items, and products with short seasonal demand, and adjust orders based on actual sales after each wave.
Check how Torgsoft helps analyze sales, generate supplier orders, create kits, and control inventory.
Download Demo VersionSources
- Ukrainian Retail Association: seasonality, sales channels, and buyer behavior.
- Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine: features of remote learning.
- State Service of Ukraine on Food Safety and Consumer Protection: safety, labeling, and quality of school supplies.
- Public Health Center: requirements for a comfortable backpack and supplies.
- State Emergency Service of Ukraine: actions of managers and employees after an air raid alert.
- Law of Ukraine "On Electronic Communications": protection of users from spam.
- Torgsoft: ABC and XYZ assortment analysis.
- Torgsoft: assembly and accounting of kits.
- Torgsoft: minimum and maximum stock balances by warehouses.
- Torgsoft: automatic calculation of warehouse stocks.
- Torgsoft: mass mailing to clients.
- Torgsoft: synchronization with the online store.
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